From Ice to Water: How Climate Change Is Shrinking Pakistan’s Glaciers

Glaciers play a foundational role in sustaining ecosystems, regulating hydrological cycles and supporting livelihoods, particularly by supplying fresh water to downstream populations. Yet this natural system is now under severe threat. Climate change, largely driven by human activity, is accelerating glacier melt at an unprecedented pace. Over the past two decades, global glacier mass has declined sharply, with the most rapid losses recorded in five of the last six years. Scientific assessments confirm that the period from 2022 to 2024 marked the largest three-year glacier mass loss ever observed. If current trends persist, up to 80 per cent of the world’s remaining glacial volume could disappear by the end of this century. 

The effects of the rapid melting of the glaciers are already being felt in both the ecological and human systems. There is a loss of habitat, disruption and heightened instability of the biodiversity in the mountain ecosystems and a change in the regimes of river flow that can affect agriculture and supply of freshwater to the population. Also affected are the communities along the coastlines because the melted water is one of the causes of the global rise of the sea level. The combination of these changes is putting a strain on the environment, compromising food and water security, and amplifying the severity of climate-related disasters. 

These risks are acute in South Asia in particular. The largest store of glaciers outside the Arctic and the Antarctic is found in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, which is sometimes termed as the Third pole of the world by its huge concentration of ice. This region covers eight countries (Afghanistan and Pakistan down to Myanmar) that provide ten of the largest rivers of Asia and serves as the most significant water tower in the world. Its seasonal melt water is a direct or indirect source of seasonal drinking, agriculture, hydropower and industry by hundreds of millions of people. 

The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region has become one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world due to the rapid melting of the glaciers. The increase in the temperature is destabilizing the glaciers and snowpacks, which are likely to enhance flash floods, cloud bursts, landslides, and extended dry seasons. These cryosphere changes are closely associated with recent outbreaks of extreme floods and heat waves across Pakistan and India. The beginning of the melting of the Third Pole is no longer a future warning; it is a current and growing crisis. 

The state of Pakistan is especially alarming. Yet, it has more than 7,000 glaciers, it is one of the most glaciated countries of the world, but it is severely restricted in its structure and ecology. Mountain ecosystems in Northern Pakistan are based on forest cover to control the temperature, stabilize the slopes and minimize soil erosion, which determine the sluggish glacier recession and landslides. The forest cover in Pakistan however is at only 5.1 per cent, as compared to the world average of 31 per cent. This ecological deficit goes a long way to undermine the capacity of the country in cushioning its glaciers against the increase in temperature and environmental degradation. 

Among the most dangerous consequences of accelerated melting of glaciers is a glacial lake. With the retreating glaciers, the melting ice or moraine forms lakes that may burst at any moment, violently. The north part of Pakistan is in an earthquake prone area and is home to more than 3000 glacial lakes, which are of varying sizes. Most of them are volatile and 33 of them are at high risk of glacial lake outburst flooding. One such incident can destroy whole valleys, infrastructure, farmlands and homes within minutes. Glacial hazard is not only an environmental problem but also a significant development and security matter because it affects more than seven million people in regions where there are threats of glacial hazards. 

Downstream effects are also severe. The agricultural system in Pakistan relies on the Indus River basin, which is the major recipient of glacial and snow-meltwater in the Hindu Kush -Himalayan region. With shrinking glaciers, water flows are turning out to be more erratic, and consequences are greater of high floods in short term and reduced dry season flows in long term. This uncertainty creates more setbacks in the irrigation planning, food production and energy generation, and further burdens the already weak economy. 

Since the melting of glaciers is the issue that needs to be addressed, it should be done on two levels: mitigation and adaptation. The most important long-term solution is the limitation of global warming. Nonetheless, as the world perceives increasing emissions and poorer nations are failing to meet their international climate commitments below the Paris Agreement targets, the vulnerable countries cannot depend on the fast global mitigation only. It is thus becoming an urgent need to strengthen local and regional resilience. 

The process of forestation, especially in mountainous areas, can be important in adjusting the temperature in the area, causing erosion and increasing slope stability. In Pakistan preservation of available forest cover should be a concern. The massive deforestation caused by rampant illegal logging of conifer forests in the high latitude regions has already taken place with a lot of deforestation contributing to the rise of temperatures and shrinkage of glaciers further. Further destruction of mountain scenery will increase risks of climate and amplify disasters. 

It is also important to protect communities that are vulnerable to glacial dangers. The effectiveness of risk reduction programs involves installations of early warning systems, building gabion walls, check dams, as well as building up channels through which floods can be safely redirected. Locally developed and indigenous techniques that may be cost-effective include glacier grafting, which can be used to reduce the rate of ice loss. Nevertheless, such actions can only be effective when the local institutions are empowered and the communities are engaged in planning, decision making and implementing actions. 

The Third pole meltdown is a transboundary issue whose effects go way past national boundaries. It cannot be tackled by any individual country. The South Asian regional cooperation is a major requirement, especially in real-time data sharing, early warning mechanisms and coordinated response to disasters. Restoring and transforming regional mechanisms dedicated to climate and environmental cooperation would not only mitigate risks of vulnerable populations but also foster faith and mutual capacity in one region where people are threatened with similar weather. 

The message from the glaciers is unmistakable. Their retreat signals profound changes underway in the Earth’s climate system, with serious implications for water security, ecosystems and human survival. For Pakistan and the wider Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, responding decisively to this warning is no longer optional. It is an urgent test of governance, cooperation and long-term vision in an increasingly unstable climate. 

Author's bio: Alishba Khan is a Qualified Chartered Accountant (ACA). She works on climate risk finance, insurance, carbon finance and sustainable development across DRR and climate change.