Kabul on the Brink: The First Capital at Risk of Running Out of Water

Kabul's climate challenge 'reflects a broader trend we're seeing across water-stressed regions globally'. (Image credit: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Shutterstock / Getty Images)) 

Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, is dealing with one of the worst urban water crises of modern times. According to recent estimates, the city may become the world's first capital to run out of water by 2030. Mercy Corps claims that throughout the last ten years, Kabul's groundwater levels have dropped by 25 to 30 meters and that annually extraction has surpassed natural recharge by about 44 million cubic meters (The Guardian, 2025). Nearly half of the city’s wells are already dry, while up to 80% of the remaining groundwater is contaminated with sewage, salinity, or arsenic (The Week, 2025). 

Rapid population increase, climate change, and governance issues all contribute to the crisis. Since 2001, Kabul's population has grown six times, seriously straining the city's already brittle infrastructure (Al Jazeera, 2025). Groundwater replenishment is hampered by falling snowpack and decreasing rainfall, while long-term water projects were affected by international aid cuts following 2021. Demand and supply are now severely out of balance as a result of these variables. 

Residents now spend up to 30% of their household income on water, with many driven into debt or reliant on commercial water firms that profit from scarcity (The Guardian, 2025). Experts express concern that Kabul may face widespread displacement, instability, and a humanitarian disaster if immediate action is not taken. Funding shortages and political barriers have caused proposed solutions, such a $170 million Panjshir River pipeline, to stay frozen (The Guardian, 2025). 

Kabul’s water crisis is a stark warning for other rapidly growing cities in climate-vulnerable regions. The combination of socioeconomic injustice, weak governance, and environmental deterioration shows how climate change can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Unless immediate investment and cooperation emerge, Kabul may soon stand as the first capital city to lose its most vital resource, WATER.