Mangroves in Motion: Mapping a Changing World of Loss, Recovery, and Climate Risk

For millions of people living near the coast, mangroves are not just forests.

They are the first line of defense when cyclones hit. They protect homes and farmland from waves and erosion. Their roots provide breeding grounds for fish, crabs, and shrimp that support coastal families and local markets. They also store large amounts of carbon, making them an important naturally in the fight against climate change.

Yet mangroves are under pressure. Coastal development, shrimp farming, pollution, rising sea levels and salinity are changing shorelines across the world. The question is no longer only whether mangroves are disappearing. It is also where they are recovering, who is at risk, and where action can make the biggest difference.

A STABLE GLOBAL PICTURE CAN HIDE LOCAL LOSS

At first glance, the global picture appears encouraging. By 2023, mangroves covered around 146,255.5 km² worldwide. Since 1985, global cover declined by only about 0.4 percent.

But this does not mean every coastline is safe.

A small global decline can hide serious losses in particular countries and communities. A mangrove forest lost in Myanmar, Indonesia or Suriname cannot simply be replaced by new growth somewhere else. Each forest protects a different coastline, supports different fisheries, and serves different people.

Mangroves cover less than 1 percent of the world’s tropical forest area, yet they support coastal livelihoods on a remarkable scale. They provide habitat for more than 1,533 species and help sustain commercially important fish, crabs, and shrimp. An estimated 2.4 billion people live within 100 km of a coast, many depending directly or indirectly on healthy coastal ecosystems. The good news is that large areas still offer hope. Around 7,938.6 km² of degraded mangrove landscapes worldwide may be suitable for restoration. Restoring them could recover an estimated 170.16 MtCO₂e of blue carbon, while also supporting fisheries and strengthening protection from storms.

Beyond the Forest Line

Mangrove change is rarely driven by a single pressure. Along the same stretch of coast, aquaculture, industrial development, and erosion can interact with rising seas and increasing salinity, placing pressure on both mangroves and the communities that depend on them.

This is why changes in forest cover tell only part of the story. Satellites can reveal where mangroves are expanding or disappearing, but understanding what is driving those changes, and what they mean for people and ecosystems—requires looking beyond the forest itself.

Change Initiative’s dashboard brings these different dimensions together. It combines mangrove records from 1985 to 2023 with data on sea-level rise, salinity, restoration potential, governance, population exposure, aquaculture, fisheries, and climate risk across 129 countries and territories. By connecting these layers, the platform helps turn a picture of where mangroves are changing into a clearer understanding of where risks are emerging and where conservation and restoration can have the greatest impact.

Global Mangroves at a Glance: The Forest and the Pressures Around It

Indicator	In 1985	In 2023	Change	Direction
Global mangrove extent	146,806.4 km²	146,255.5 km²	−551 km² (−0.38%)	↓
Brackish-water aquaculture	0.58 million tonnes	12.46 million tonnes	More than 20-fold increase	↑↑
Shrimp and prawn production	0.21 million tonnes	7.70 million tonnes	About 36-fold increase	↑↑
Mangrove area per million people	40.5 km²	23.4 km²	−42.3%	↓
Potentially restorable mangrove	—	7,938.6 km²	Current modelled opportunity
Potential restoration carbon benefit	—	170.16 MtCO₂e	Modelled potential
Potential fisheries benefit	—	≈48.7 billion individuals	Modelled potential

The contrast is striking. Between 1985 and 2023, global mangrove extent declined by only 0.38 percent, while reported brackish-water aquaculture increased more than twentyfold and shrimp and prawn production about thirty-sixfold. In other words, a relatively unchanged global mangrove resource is now operating alongside a vastly larger coastal production economy. The analysis also shows that countries with larger aquaculture sectors tend to have greater mangrove restoration opportunities. This does not prove that aquaculture caused mangrove loss, but the overlap points to places where production pressure, historical degradation and restoration needs deserve closer attention.

Across Coasts, the Story Changes

The global picture hides very different national trajectories. In some countries, decades of loss have left mangrove systems under growing pressure. In others, the challenge is to protect what remains while creating space for recovery.

Indonesia shows the enormous scale of both loss and opportunity. It has more than 31,000 km² of mangroves but lost 2,448 km² between 1985 and 2023-the largest absolute loss recorded globally. At the same time, about 2,032 km² may still be suitable for restoration.

Restoring these areas could recover an estimated 80.71 MtCO₂e of blue carbon and strengthen fisheries that support around 20.27 billion fish, crabs and shrimp. Indonesia also produces around 3.3 million tonnes of brackish-water aquaculture annually. In a country where aquaculture expansion has contributed to mangrove conversion, the scale of production highlights the challenge of balancing coastal livelihoods and economic activity with mangrove protection and restoration.

Myanmar tells a more urgent story of decline. It lost 1,453 km² of mangroves between 1985 and 2023-about one-fifth of its mangrove cover. For coastal families, this can mean fewer natural barriers against storms and less support for fisheries.

Still, there is room for recovery. Around 603 km² may be suitable for restoration, with the potential to recover 15.52 MtCO₂e of blue carbon. Healthy mangroves also support an estimated 3.58 billion fish, crabs, bivalves and shrimp-linking restoration directly to food security and local incomes.

This means protecting existing mangroves can be just as important as planting new ones. Forests that survive today may give communities more time and protection as climate risks increase.

Suriname offers another lesson: small mangrove areas can still matter enormously. The country has lost 18.1 percent of its mangroves since 1985. Rising salinity and sea-level exposure threaten what remains. Although the country’s mangrove forests may be smaller than those of Indonesia or Brazil, they still protect shorelines, support fisheries and sustain livelihoods.

A Different Story Is Taking Root

The global mangrove story is not only about what is being lost. In some places, the forest is gaining ground. Bangladesh, Brazil and Viet Nam offer three examples-but their numbers also show why recovery does not mean the work is finished.

Bangladesh offers a more hopeful picture, although its coastal communities remain highly exposed to climate risks.

Between 1985 and 2023, mangrove cover increased from 4,240 km² to 4,310.8 km²-a net gain of 70.8 km². This matters in a country where mangroves, especially the Sundarbans, are deeply connected to people’s safety, livelihoods, and identity.

The analysis also identifies 56.5 km² of land that may be suitable for mangrove restoration. Restoring these areas could recover around 0.77 MtCO₂e of blue carbon and support an estimated 31.24 million additional fisheries individuals.

But an increase in mangrove cover does not remove the danger. Under a one-metre sea-level-rise scenario, around 1.51 percent of Bangladesh’s land, 1.37 percent of wetlands and 1.11 percent of its population could be exposed. Bangladesh’s climate-risk score of 64.4 and adaptation-priority score of 63.8 underline a simple reality: progress must be protected.

For Bangladesh, the lesson is clear. Mangrove gains should be treated not as a reason to relax, but as a foundation for stronger coastal adaptation, better protection and community-centred restoration.

Brazil shows that even countries with relatively stable mangrove forests still have an important role to play. Its mangrove area grew modestly by 63.4 km² between 1985 and 2023, reaching 10,669 km².

The country also has around 454.3 km² of potential restoration area. This could recover an estimated 6.42 MtCO₂e of blue carbon and support around 1.04 billion additional fisheries individuals. Stability, in this case, creates an opportunity to invest before a crisis becomes visible.

Viet Nam shows one of the clearest gains in mangrove cover. Between 1985 and 2023, its mangroves increased from about 1,413 km² to 1,669 km²-a gain of roughly 257 km², or 18.2 percent. Cover peaked at about 1,713 km² in 2020 before declining slightly. Even so, the 2023 level remained well above the 1985 baseline. Given Viet Nam’s high exposure to sea-level rise, under a one-metre sea-level-rise scenario, around 10.8 percent of the population and 28.7 percent of wetlands could be exposed.

Taken together, the six countries reveal very different paths. Myanmar and Indonesia show sustained long-term losses; Suriname shows how earlier gains can unravel; Bangladesh and Brazil remain comparatively stable; and Viet Nam records substantial expansion. Figure 1 brings these trajectories together by setting mangrove cover in 1985 to a common baseline of 100, allowing countries with very different mangrove areas to be compared on the same scale. 

Figure 1. Mangrove cover change in selected countries, 1985–2023 (1985 = 100). Values above 100 indicate an increase relative to 1985; values below 100 indicate a decline.

From scientific evidence to conservation decisions

The central message from these countries is not that mangroves are either winning or losing globally. It is that every coastline has its own story.

Some places need urgent protection from further loss. Some need restoration. Others need support to help mangroves move inland as sea levels rise. In all cases, local communities need to be part of the decision-making process.

The CI Mangrove Dashboard was developed to help make those decisions easier. It brings together mangrove change, restoration potential, blue carbon, fisheries benefits, governance, salinity and sea-level-rise exposure in one place.

For policymakers, this can help answer practical questions: Which coastlines are most at risk? Where can restoration benefit people and nature? Which communities need stronger protection now?

Mangroves may stand quietly at the edge of land and sea, but their value is anything but small. Protecting them means protecting food, homes, livelihoods, and the future of coastal communities.

Tools like CI's dashboard are one small but concrete step toward that shift - replacing a single

global statistic with a live, country-by-country picture that anyone can explore for themselves at changei.earth/global-mangrove-resilience-andrestoration